Temporal trends and moderating effects of sex, curriculum revisions and COVID-19 in the distribution of physical education grades at the lower secondary level in Norway between 2002–2023

Examined how PE grades developed over time and whether structural breaks were associated with curriculum reforms and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed a marked upward shift in grades, with the proportion receiving Grade 6 increasing from approximately 5% in 2002 to over 20% in 2023, while lower and mid-range grades declined. Piecewise regression analyses identified significant breakpoints in 2006 (R2 = 0.99, p < 0.001), 2013 (R2 = 0.91, p < 0.001), and 2020 (R2 = 0.85, p < 0.001), indicating accelerated increases in the predicted probability of receiving the highest grade following these time points. In the analysis, boys had significantly higher odds of receiving a higher PE grade than girls, although this gap narrowed over time (χ2 (3) = 40,365.90, p < 0.001, Pseudo R2 = 0.0116). These findings suggest substantial changes in grading patterns in Norwegian PE, potentially reflecting both curriculum-related shifts and broader changes in assessment practice. While the trends may indicate movement toward more inclusive assessment, they also raise concerns about grade inflation and the validity of grades as indicators of competence. The study highlights the need for transparent and coherent assessment frameworks and for continued research on grading practices in PE.