An assessment of mitigation strategies for maintaining a balanced moose-wolf-caribou system in Ontario’s ring of fire region

Effective resource management is crucial for preserving global biodiversity. This paper employs scenario-based analysis of different mitigation strategies to assess their effectiveness and feasibility in addressing the cumulative impacts of resource development in Northern Ontario’s Ring of Fire, a region that represents one of the largest remaining intact forest landscapes in North America, capable of supporting natural levels of biodiversity and traditional Indigenous land use practices. The scenario analysis was conducted to explore the consequences of resource development, fire, climate change, harvest, and proposed management strategies on the moose-wolf-caribou system in the Ring of Fire region. Specifically, the simulations assess the potential effectiveness of wolf control, maternal caribou penning, and moose harvest in maintaining a balanced predator–prey system. This modelling project was completed in the Mississa and Ozhizki caribou ranges, covering 108,000 km 2 of northern Ontario. Through the scenario analysis, we combined integrated landscape and population simulators to compare different management strategies aimed at conserving caribou and maintaining opportunities for moose harvest. The models and results presented here help identify the range of plausible outcomes and relative effort required for mitigation. The study concludes that to foster an effective wildlife management and maintain ecological balance among caribou, wolves and moose amid development pressures in the Ring of Fire region, a holistic, integrated science-based and community-led mitigation strategy is required.