Extreme Wind Speed Analysis Incorporating the Dependence between Wind Speed and Its Derivative

The upcrossing method is advantageous in extreme value analysis because it leads to a more efficient use of the available data. In its typical applications in extreme wind prediction, conventional analysis often adopts the assumption of statistical independence between wind speed and its time derivative. This assumption leads to a constant cycling rate, which, however, is inconsistent with observations. To address this limitation, wind speed is here modeled as a memoryless transformation of an underlying stationary process. This approach captures the statistical dependence between wind speed and its time derivative, and it explains the observed increase in cycling rate with wind speed. Validation using surface wind records from six meteorological stations showed the relation between cycling rate and wind speed predicted by the translation method aligns well with observations. The comparison of the extreme wind speed demonstrates ignoring the wind-speed-derivative dependence would systematically underestimates design wind speeds by approximately 10%.