Study-related difficulties and changes in educational and occupational plans among adolescents in Türkiye during the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a critical moment for understanding how young people construct, revise, and negotiate their future aspirations under conditions of uncertainty. This paper examines how COVID-19 pandemic reshaped educational and occupational expectations of adolescents aged 13–17 in Türkiye. Using a nationally representative dataset, the Turkish Child Survey Micro Data Set (2022), we explore two interrelated outcomes: changes in educational and occupational plans and experiencing study-related difficulties during school closures. We estimate a bivariate probit model to jointly analyze these outcomes. Empirical results reveal a significant positive correlation between experiencing difficulties and altering adolescent’s educational and occupational expectations. Socioeconomic and parental factors significantly shape these experiences. Higher household income and higher levels of paternal education reduce the likelihood of study-related challenges. Better health status and higher happiness levels decrease the likelihood of prevalence of both outcomes. Therefore, we conclude that psychological vulnerability also plays an important, along with household socioeconomic status in shaping young people’s educational and occupational plans during times of exogeneous shocks.