Overconfidence: The Achilles' heel of climate communication? An eye-tracking experiment

Climate communication plays a crucial role in motivating public engagement, yet its effectiveness can vary depending on how individuals process climate-related information. This study addresses the problem that people overestimate their knowledge about climate change, which may distort how they respond to communication efforts. The main aim of this research is to examine how overconfidence shapes the perception and evaluation of climate-related messages. To investigate this, an eye-tracking experiment with 98 participants was conducted, comparing responses to a website containing either strong or weak climate-related signals. The results show that strong climate change signals significantly impact visual attention (i.e., lower attention to image but higher attention to text), and increase attitudes towards the communication, message effectiveness and positive word-of-mouth. By contrast, individuals who overestimate their climate knowledge pay higher attention to the text if signals are weak. When exposed to strong signals, overconfident individuals exhibit higher levels of reactance, which subsequently reduces both message effectiveness and word-of-mouth. Overall, the study concludes that climate communication strategies should be tailored to individuals’ perceived knowledge to avoid unintended resistance and improve communication impact.