Trade-offs in carbon capture rates: Toward net zero and negative emissions

Fully decarbonization is essential for achieving climate goals and transitioning to a carbon–neutral economy. Carbon capture technologies, particularly amine-based, play a central role in this process. However, the widespread adoption of a 90% carbon capture rate as the standard limits progress toward more ambitious decarbonization targets. This study explores the efficiency, and cost implications of achieving ultra-high carbon capture rates, targeting near-zero, net-zero, and net-negative emissions scenarios. A review of existing literature reveals that higher carbon capture rates, approaching or exceeding 99%, are technically feasible and economically viable under specific configurations. While some constraints exist for smaller carbon sources, advancements in energy recovery and system optimization mitigate many of these challenges. This study applies a simulation-based approach built on to evaluate carbon capture rates of cement and waste-to-energy plants. Results reveal that achieving net-negative scenarios requires removal rates of 99.65% for Cement, and 99.40% for Waste Incineration. Energy demand increases significantly as capture rates approach 100%, with a 40% increase observed between 90% and 99%. Cost estimates range from 53.29 to 94.69 € per ton of carbon captured, varying by sector and scale. The findings highlight the importance of planning for ultra-high capture systems to meet ambitious decarbonization goals. By quantifying the trade-offs between energy, cost, and capture rates, the North Jutland analysis shows a conservative output, even with future reductions expected from declining emissions and technology learning, while near-zero capture rates offer the most cost-effective pathway for decarbonizing energy systems and industrial infrastructure.