Educational expectations among Chinese parents from 2014 to 2022

This study explores the historical evolution of educational expectations among Chinese parents from 2014 to 2022. Utilizing data from the nationally representative China Family Panel Studies, the research employs a comparative approach to analyze differences in the change pattern of educational expectations between rural parents from Eastern, Central, and Western China and urban parents. Two distinct datasets were generated to ensure robust findings. While two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple regression models were applied for the repeated cross-sectional data with independent samples across five cohorts (i.e. 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022), mixed-design ANOVAs were performed on four sets of longitudinal data with related samples. Results from the three groups of analyses consistently indicate a narrowing gap in educational expectations between rural and urban parents. The convergent trend is attributed to the steady rise of educational expectations among rural parents over time, particularly among those from Western China. Notably, the statistically significant disparity identified in 2014 has diminished by 2022. This convergence in parental expectations might reflect a significant shift in China’s educational landscape. The diminishing expectational gap between rural and urban parents might suggest a potential reduction in the intergenerational transmission of educational disadvantage, indicating meaningful progress toward enhanced equity in educational opportunities. These findings offer fresh insight for rural educational policy development, intervention design, and curriculum reform. The Chinese developmental trajectories might have practical implications for other developing countries regarding their rural empowerment.