Assessing the Impact of Local Traffic Carbon Emissions on Urban Road Surface Temperature at the Road-Segment Scale

Urbanization and rapid economic growth have exacerbated urban heat effects, increasing the frequency of heat-related disasters and intensifying human health risks. Urban traffic generates substantial carbon emissions and associated heat, which significantly alter roadside thermal environments and impact human activities. Numerous previous studies have investigated urban thermal environments and their influencing mechanisms. However, the relationships between road-level traffic carbon emission (TCE) and road surface temperature (RST) remain insufficiently explored. In this study, roadway segment-based TCE and RST were acquired by integrating hourly traffic flow information, localized vehicle carbon emission factors, high-resolution Landsat-8 remote sensing datasets, and the road network. Three commonly used linear regression models and an improved Random Forest (RF) model were utilized to assess the impact of TCE on RST for different grades of roads. The study showed that carbon emissions from road traffic exhibit a locally focused distribution pattern in space. Compared to other grades of roads, higher levels of TCE were observed in urban main roads. In summer, roads (e.g., minor arterials) with lower grades tended to have a higher thermal risk, with freeways having the lowest TCE and urban expressways experiencing the greatest TCE fluctuations. An improved RF model integrating the spatial weight matrix and Gaussian process could more efficiently identify the nonlinear effects of TCE on RST. The contributions of TCE to summer RST were 0.4, 0.37, 0.54, and 0.56 for freeways, urban expressways, main roads, and minor arterials, respectively. The relative impact of road TCE with lower grades on RST becomes more significant, while the impact of surrounding buildings and green areas tends to decrease. Our findings provide valuable insights for reducing urban carbon emissions and thermal risks.