The Synergistic Transition of China’s Manufacturing Industry Towards Digitalisation and Green Development: A Study on Level Measurement, Analysis of Influencing Factors and Interactive Effects

Faced with industrial transformation and environmental constraints, exploring the synergistic transition towards digitalisation and greening in manufacturing is of great significance. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2023), this paper employs the modified distance synergy model, XGBoost, and PVAR to measure the synergistic transition level, identify key characteristics, and reveal regional heterogeneity. The findings show that: (1) The synergistic level has risen steadily, forming a pattern of “East leading, Central catching up, West stable, Northeast slowing”. (2) Digital content resources, internet address resources, the share of high-tech new product revenue, and environmental protection expenditure are key characteristics. (3) Regional heterogeneity is evident: the Northeast exhibits bidirectional synergy; the East and West show short-term digitalisation promoting greening and long-term greening driving digitalisation; the Central region shows short-term suppression of digitalisation by greening, with no significant reverse effect. These findings provide empirical evidence for advancing digital-green synergy and regional high-quality development.