Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Climate Change Dynamics in Southeast European Countries

This paper explores the evolving relationship between energy consumption, economic activity, and carbon emissions in Southeast European countries over the period 2000–2024. Using a dynamic panel framework, the analysis focuses primarily on short-run interactions, given the lack of evidence for a stable long-term equilibrium. The findings reveal that changes in energy consumption remain the main driver of fluctuations in CO2 emissions, confirming the carbon-intensive nature of energy use across the region. In contrast, economic growth and industrial production do not show a statistically significant direct effect on emissions in the short term. Renewable energy plays a mitigating role, although its impact becomes more visible only when cross-country interdependencies are taken into account. This suggests that regional factors, such as shared policies and energy market shocks, shape environmental outcomes. Overall, the results indicate that emissions are influenced more by immediate changes in energy use than by persistent dynamics, highlighting the ongoing challenge of reducing environmental pressure without fundamentally transforming the energy structure.