Modeling Residential Vehicle Miles Traveled at Block Group Level in California

This study highlights the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) consequences of zoning, infrastructure investment, and housing planning across California. We developed a statistical model to predict residential VMT per resident at the census block group level in California. Independent variables included built-environment characteristics and housing affordability. The intent of this analysis is to provide a planning-oriented model in which variable selection prioritizes built-environment dimensions subject to direct policy intervention, including density, street connectivity, transit access, and housing affordability, rather than sociodemographic characteristics that, while correlated with travel behavior, lie outside the direct control of land use and transportation planning. Individual models for major MPOs assessed geographical variability in the results and revealed meaningful variation in coefficient magnitudes, suggesting that VMT sensitivity to density, investments in transit, and housing affordability differs across metropolitan contexts. The model provides a practical empirical framework for policymakers evaluating strategies to reduce VMT and related environmental impacts.