The burden of oral disorders in Latin America and Caribbean countries from 1990 to 2023 and projections until 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023

Background Oral disorders (OD) are the most prevalent non-communicable conditions worldwide. We analyse the burden of OD in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) from 1990 to 2023, with projections to 2050. Methods This analysis used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for untreated dental caries of deciduous (UDCD) and permanent teeth (UDCP), severe periodontitis, edentulism, and other OD across 33 LAC countries. DisMod-MR 2.1, spatiotemporal regression, and MR-BRT were applied. YLDs were calculated as prevalence multiplied by disability weights. Associations with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) were assessed using LOWESS smoothers. Forecasts to 2050 incorporated demographic and risk-factor trends. Findings In 2023, OD in LAC caused 290.8 million (95% UI 259.3–325.4) incident cases, 308.2 million (285.9–332.7) prevalent cases, and 2.41 million (1.51–3.48) YLDs. They ranked first in prevalence, second in incidence, and tenth in YLDs among all causes over the past three decades. UDCD peaked in childhood, UDCP in young adulthood and midlife; while severe periodontitis and edentulism predominated in older adults, with YLDs increasing sharply with age. Higher SDI correlated inversely with edentulism but positively with severe periodontal disability. By 2050, YLDs are projected to reach 3.81 million (2.28–5.80). Interpretation Despite progress in child oral health, OD remain a leading cause of YLDs in LAC. Integrating oral health into primary care and UHC across the life course, alongside action on upstream social and commercial determinants is essential to reduce the burden. Funding The GBD2023 Study is supported by the Gates Foundation.