Mathematical modeling of environmental consequences of river flow regulation by hydroelectric power plants

Hydropower, as a key source of renewable energy, has a significant impact on river ecosystems, in particular on the thermal regime and water quality downstream of dams. One of the most critical parameters is the concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO), which directly affects the biodiversity of aquatic ecosystems. This study aims to develop a predictive model of DO concentration downstream of a hydroelectric dam based on key operational parameters (water flow Q , pressure head H ) and seasonal factors (water temperature T ) for application to the arid climate of Central Asia ( R 2 = 0.91, RMSE = 0.3 mg/L). A compact nonlinear regression model is proposed, including quadratic terms and interaction effects. The novelty of this study lies in the integration of hydropower operation parameters with seasonal thermal effects into a unified predictive framework applicable to arid climatic zones.