Geospatial Assessment of The Effect of The Urban Growth of Uniosun Campuses, Osun State, Nigeria

Background and context: The establishment of university campuses is often associated with positive social and economic changes, including rural-to-urban migration, which contributes significantly to urban growth. Goal and Objectives: This study examines the expansion of Osun State University (UNIOSUN) campuses in Osogbo, Okuku, Ipetu-Ijesa, Ikire, Ifetedo, and Ejigbo over a 20-year period (2000–2020) using remotely sensed datasets and geospatial techniques. Methodology: The research focuses on identifying the spatial pattern of urban growth within the campuses, measuring the rate and magnitude of change, analyzing growth trends, and projecting the spread of urban development into surrounding host communities by 2030. Landsat satellite imagery from 2000, 2010, and 2020 was classified into four land-use categories: open land, vegetation, built-up areas, and water bodies. For this analysis, only the built-up (urban) class was retained, as it serves as the primary indicator of urbanization. Results: Urban growth increased across all campuses after the 2010 baseline, with the most pronounced change at the Ipetu-Ijesa campus, where the built-up area rose from 3.3% in 2010 to 24.3% in 2020. Urban growth rate analysis revealed varying rates of expansion across campuses, with values of 0.017, 0.0089, 0.025, 0.0005, 0.0007, and 0.0024 sq km/year for Osogbo, Okuku, Ipetu-Ijesa, Ikire, Ifetedo, and Ejigbo, respectively. Projections for 2030 indicate continued increases in urbanization around most host communities, except in Ejigbo, where urban settlement is expected to decline slightly. Conclusion: The findings provide valuable guidance for planners, university administrators, and policymakers on how to promote sustainable urban development and ecosystem protection.