Leading in the Digital Age: Digital Leadership Capabilities, Organisational Innovation Climate, and AI Adoption Intention Among SMEs in Nigeria

Although small and medium enterprises (SMEs) anchor employment and output across Sub-Saharan Africa, their uptake of artificial intelligence (AI) lags global benchmarks, and prevailing explanations dwell on capital, infrastructure, and institutional voids while overlooking the leadership competencies that determine whether available resources are mobilised at all. Addressing this gap, the present study asks how the digital leadership capabilities of SME owner-managers shape their intention to adopt AI in Nigeria, and through what organisational mechanisms and under what boundary conditions this influence operates. Anchored in the Diffusion of Innovation Theory and the Tigre–Henriques–Curado model of digital leadership, a cross-sectional survey was administered to owner-managers of registered SMEs drawn from six states; a sample of 390 was derived from a population of 23,290 firms using the Taro Yamane formula with proportionate allocation, and 306 valid responses were retained. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (WarpPLS 8.0) was applied after confirming reliability (Cronbach’s α: 0.69–0.84; composite reliability: 0.83–0.88), convergent validity (AVE: 0.56–0.67), and common method bias control. Strategic (β = 0.298), interpersonal (β = 0.245), and personal attribute (β = 0.129) capabilities each significantly raised AI adoption intention. In contrast, delivery-related capabilities (β = 0.090, p = 0.057) did not, indicating that pre-adoption intention is governed by cognitive-strategic and relational competencies rather than execution skills. Organisational innovation climate partially transmitted the effects of strategic and interpersonal capabilities, and firm size amplified the interpersonal pathway in medium-sized firms. The study contributes a leadership-centred account of AI adoption in an under-researched African setting and, by estimating mediation and moderation within a single framework, clarifies both why and when digital leadership translates into AI readiness, yielding capability-specific guidance for owner-managers and SME support policy.