Geographical evaluation of demographic trends and settlement patterns in East Zangezur economic region

The article presents a comprehensive geographical assessment of demographic dynamics and settlement patterns in the East Zangezur Economic Region of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which has gained relevance after the liberation of the Karabakh and East Zangezur territories. The study examines quantitative and qualitative changes in the region’s population structure, spatial distribution, and settlement hierarchy over the period 1979–2024. Applying a combination of general scientific and specialized geographical methods – such as system-structural, comparative, historical-geographical, and statistical analysis – the research identifies the main demographic trends and evaluates the spatial organization of settlements in relation to natural, economic, and social conditions. Based on Walter Christaller’s Central Place Theory, a multi-level model of the settlement system is proposed, defining Aghdam as the regional center and five district-level hubs within East Zangezur. Calculations of the Index of Relative Settlement Density (IRSD) and the Coefficient of Territorial Concentration (CTC) demonstrate significant spatial disparities among administrative districts. While Lachin district shows a balanced settlement structure (K = 0.4), Kalbajar reveals the most uneven pattern (K = 16.4). Over the last 45 years, the region’s population increased by 1.87%, surpassing the national average growth rate, though differences persist across districts. The findings contribute to the scientific understanding of regional demographic development and offer a foundation for sustainable spatial planning and socio-economic revitalization in the liberated territories.