Evolution of Ecological Vulnerability and Scenario Simulations in the Yellow River Source Region Under Climate Change

Amid accelerating global environmental change, assessing ecological vulnerability is critical for sustainability science. Focusing on the Yellow River Source Region (YRSR)—a key water source and ecological shield in China—this study develops an integrated assessment system based on the “Pressure–State–Response” (PSR) framework, incorporating 29 indicators. A combined weighting approach integrating analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with entropy-based objective weighting characterizes the spatiotemporal patterns, drivers, and future trajectories of ecological vulnerability. Key findings reveal: (1) heterogeneous warming–wetting trends with stronger humidification in the south and relative stability in the north drive divergent hydrological responses, highlighting the limitations of single-climate metrics in explaining vulnerability dynamics; (2) vulnerability patterns are primarily shaped by climatic factors—especially temperature and potential evapotranspiration—with anthropogenic pressures serving as secondary modulators, reinforcing the foundational role of thermal and moisture regimes in alpine ecosystem resilience; and (3) scenario projections consistently identify the northeast as a persistently high-vulnerability zone, yet show that balanced socioeconomic development can reconcile ecological protection with development needs. Based on these insights, a four-tier ecological zoning scheme and a governance framework comprising three strategies—strict conservation, adaptive regulation, and sustainable utilization—are proposed. This work offers actionable scientific guidance for tailored ecological conservation in the YRSR and contributes methodological advancements for vulnerability assessment and adaptive management of high-elevation ecosystems globally.