Rapid assessment of local disease control measures against the Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia in late 2025

In November 2025, Marburg virus caused the first outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia. By December 15, a total of 14 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, including 9 deaths, corresponding to a case fatality ratio of 64.3%. In the absence of licenced vaccines or antivirals, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented to control transmission. We developed a stochastic epidemic model incorporating an exponential growth process with reporting adjustment to assess the effectiveness of NPIs. The reporting ratio was modelled using a beta distribution, and transmission parameters were estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo with particle filtering. Using pre-NPI data (November 12-23), we estimated an exponential growth rate of 0.012 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.008, 0.014) per day, corresponding to a reproduction number of 1.13 (95% CrI: 1.09, 1.16). Counterfactual simulations projected 64 cases (95% CrI: 19, 189) and 41 deaths (95% CrI: 12, 122) during the post-NPI period (November 24 to December 15) without interventions. Compared with 4 observed cases, NPIs were associated with an estimated effectiveness of 93.7% (95% CrI: 78.9, 97.9). These findings indicated moderate transmissibility of MVD, and a potential transmission risk reduction following the implementation of control measures, underscoring the importance of rapid intervention and sustained surveillance regarding local MVD activities.