Rethinking Ethnicity and Democratic Transition in Ethiopia: Identity, Federalism, and the Crisis of Statehood

Ethiopia's 2018 political opening was widely interpreted as a historic democratic breakthrough, yet the subsequent trajectory revealed deeper structural crises rooted in contested statehood, fragmented national identity, and institutional fragility. Drawing on historical institutionalism, theories of democratization, and frameworks of power and state‐building, the article argues that Ethiopia's 2018 transition unfolded without the foundational consensus for democratic consolidation. The modern Ethiopian state, shaped by the expansion of state authority and the uneven incorporation of diverse populations, produced competing narratives of belonging that ethnic federalism both recognized and entrenched. Although early reforms expanded political participation, they lacked institutional safeguards to manage heightened mobilization, enabling rival elites to advance maximalist claims. The erosion of performance‐based legitimacy, rising ethnic polarization, and the eruption of deadly conflicts in various regions underscore the limits of liberalization in a deeply divided society. Democratization in Ethiopia thus remains untenable without a renegotiated political settlement balancing autonomy and national unity. Related Articles Ondoua Beyene, Blaise, Thierry Mamadou Asngar, Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa, Prisca Koncy Fossoa, and Cyrille Bergali Kamdem. 2025. “Cultural Diffusion and Democracy: What Lessons in Sub‐Saharan Africa's Experience?” Politics & Policy 53(1): e70012. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.70012 . Ziso, Edson. 2020. “The Political Economy of the Chinese Model in Ethiopia.” Politics & Policy 48(5): 908‐931. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12374 . Byrne, Jennifer. 2016. “Contextual Identity among Liberian Refugees in Ghana: Identity Salience in a Protracted Refugee Situation.” Politics & Policy 44(4): 751‐782. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12169 .