Low carbon constraints, innovation driven and carbon neutral technological innovation: empirical evidence based on multiple policy combinations

Carbon neutrality technology innovation (CNTI) is essential for China's deep decarbonization. Evaluating the interaction between environmental policies and carbon-neutral technology is crucial for achieving the "Dual Carbon" goals and advancing China's modernization. This paper employs panel data spanning 271 prefecture-level cities from 2011 to 2023. Anchored in the "Technology-Organization-Environment" (TOE) framework, it examines the transmission mechanism and moderation effect of the "dual pilot" policy aimed at promoting CNTI. Furthermore, the research conducts a comparative analysis of the net effects of single pilot policies versus the synergistic and sequencing effects arising from the combined implementation of "dual pilot" policies, while also examining how urban characteristics influence policy outcomes through a multidimensional heterogeneity lens. The research results indicate that the "dual pilot" policy has a more favorable effect on CNTI compared to the single pilot policy. The "dual pilot" policy facilitates CNTI through three primary mechanisms: increasing research and development investment, promoting the upgrading of human capital structure, and enhancing informal environmental regulation. And CNTI is more significant in large cities, eastern cities, and non-resource-based cities.