Carbon balance zoning and carbon budget drivers for governance in the Chengdu Chongqing urban agglomeration

Against China's "dual-carbon" backdrop, identifying carbon balance patterns and governance zones in rapidly urbanizing regions is central to territorial spatial optimization. Using the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration as a case, this study develops a three-dimensional framework based on net carbon emissions, economic contribution, and ecological support coefficients to link carbon accounting, driver diagnosis, and zoning governance. Results show that: (1) The region exhibits a "high-emission core-strong carbon-sink periphery" pattern, with emissions peaking at 1.42×10 8 t in 2010, rebounding to 1.28×10 8 t in 2020, and carbon sinks increasing by only 0.82%. (2) Low-carbon maintenance zones dominate, accounting for 45.15% of the area, whereas high-carbon optimization and carbon-intensity control zones cluster in the dual-core area and development corridor. (3) Population density, land-use intensity, and government intervention are key drivers, with interaction effects stronger than single-factor effects. These findings inform differentiated mitigation and territorial spatial planning in the region.