SIR-Based Modeling of Viral Infectious Diseases in Farm Animals

Throughout history, epidemic diseases have had profound impacts on societies, causing serious problems in public health as well as adverse effects on food security and animal health.When real-time data are processed through mathematical and statistical models, it becomes possible to evaluate the course and effects of an outbreak.In this study, the progression of a disease was simulated using the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered/ Removed) mathematical model, which is one of the most widely used models for epidemic analysis, by incorporating transmission and recovery rates.For this purpose, three different simulations were performed on a herd consisting of N=1000 animals over a 10day period, and the expected numbers of susceptible, infected, and recovered animals were obtained.Evaluation of the different simulation rates revealed that when the contact rate and recovery rate were reduced, the number of susceptible animals remained constant, while the number of infected animals increased and the number of recovered animals decreased after 10 days.This model provides a valuable preliminary assessment and decision-support tool for epidemic management and control strategies.Furthermore, the development of such models is crucial for early detection and effective intervention in future outbreaks.