Wind Energy Futures: Which Locations Across the Western U.S. Are Most Resilient to Environmental Change?

Wind energy is central to the energy transition, but its reliance on atmospheric conditions makes long‐term resource planning vulnerable to environmental change. Earth System Model projections suggest uneven regional change, yet coarse resolution limits infrastructure planning in complex terrain, and few multi‐model assessments are validated against observations. Here, we address this gap by examining an ensemble of 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 simulations dynamically downscaled at 9 km resolution to assess wind energy potential across the Western United States (WUS) from 1980 to 2099. We evaluate ensemble skill against downscaled reanalysis (WRF‐ERA5) and 112 site observations and analyze four decision‐relevant indicators: hub‐height wind speed, Wind power density (WPD), coefficient of variation, and wind‐rich level occurrence. Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3‐7.0, WPD decreases by 8.77% across the WUS by century's end, but spatial variability is substantial: northern Nevada and southeastern Wyoming experience the largest declines (−12%), while some high‐elevation Colorado sites show minimal change (<2%). Critically, despite experiencing the greatest percentage reductions, most high‐elevation wind‐rich regions remain above the 300 W m −2 , comfortably exceeding the viability threshold, consistent with the interpretation that terrain‐forced flows help sustain viable wind resources despite large‐scale circulation changes. Seasonal analysis reveals winter declines (−10%) driven by weakened storm activity exceed summer changes (−3%) where thermal circulations persist, reflecting polar amplification's differential impact on baroclinic versus thermally driven winds. By characterizing the spatial patterns of regional resilience and their likely physical drivers, this study provides spatially explicit information distinguishing climatically vulnerable from resilient locations.