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June 12, 2026Therapeutic Advances in Musculoskeletal DiseaseOpen Access

Development and validation of a clinical scoring system for the prediction of methotrexate treatment response in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a multicenter real-world study

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Authors

RHRudy HidayatFFFara FauziaSWSuryo Anggoro Kusumo Wibowo

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Overview

Randomized trial develops and validates a scoring model predicting methotrexate success in rheumatoid arthritis, suggesting improved patient management tools.

Key Points

  • This study aimed to create and validate a scoring system predicting methotrexate treatment success in rheumatoid arthritis patients.
  • Conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of 840 disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naïve RA patients treated with MTX monotherapy.
  • Used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors for treatment success and constructed a scoring model.
  • Performed both internal validation with 10-fold cross-validation and external validation in a separate cohort of 265 patients.
  • Identified four independent predictors for MTX success: age >60 years, normal ESR, lower baseline disease activity (DAS28-ESR ≤5.1), and lower glucocorticoid dose.
  • Developed model achieved an AUC of 0.66, with internal validation yielding a mean AUC of 0.65.
  • External validation showed moderate discrimination (AUC 0.63; 95% CI 0.56–0.70), indicating stable performance of the scoring system.

Cite This Study

Hidayat et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a2ba3d18101cf8926f02631https://doi.org/10.1177/1759720x261454006
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Clinical predictors of response to methotrexate in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: A systematic review2026
  2. 2Predictive Factors of Methotrexate Monotherapy Success in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis in a National Referral Center: A Cohort Study2024
  3. 3Precision medicine in rheumatoid arthritis: Evaluation of a new approach to predict clinical response to methotrexate in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis2025
  4. 4Pharmacokinetic‐pharmacodynamic modelling and simulation of methotrexate dosing in patients with rheumatoid arthritis2024 · 3 citations
  5. 5Retrospective Analysis of Hematological Parameter Changes in DMARD-Naive Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients Treated with Methotrexate: Correlation with Disease Activity and Treatment Outcomes2026 · 1 citations