Simulation Analysis of Carrier-Based Aircraft Sortie Generation Rate Under Multi-Source Coupled Faults

The sortie generation rate (SGR), a key metric of carrier-based aircraft operations, is severely degraded by multi-source coupled faults across the human–equipment–environment triad. Existing models oversimplify these dynamics by employing static failure probabilities and treating contributing factors in isolation, thereby underestimating systemic risk. To address this, we propose a mechanism-driven, hybrid simulation framework that dynamically captures fault coupling and cascading effects within the phased-mission system (PMS) of flight deck operations. First, 22 basic fault events are identified via fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) and translated into a Bayesian network (BN) to establish a probabilistic baseline. A multi-source coupled fault model is then constructed, integrating human reliability, time-varying equipment degradation, and fault stress propagation to describe spatiotemporal coupling. A protocol is designed to robustly simulate heterogeneous fault dynamics within a discrete-continuous hybrid engine. Simulation experiments demonstrate that: (1) the baseline replicates real-world exercise data, validating framework credibility; (2) the model reveals a nonlinear SGR degradation with a sharp decline beyond a critical maintenance-pressure threshold, a behavior missed by static models; and (3) a comprehensive maintenance strategy improves long-term SGR by 73.13% over a reactive baseline. This framework provides a scalable testbed for evaluating operational resilience and informing maintenance strategies for next-generation aircraft carriers.