The Great Tale of China: The Factors that Shape American Public Opinion on China

What influences American public opinion on China? It has been well-established that American citizens, on average, are poorly informed about foreign affairs. Theories of elite cues and elite framing point to the possibility that Americans may form their opinion on China in response to the political rhetoric, while economic voting theory suggests economic conditions within the U.S. may also play an important role. Using a mixed-methods approach, this study analyzes American public opinion trends on China between 1946 and 2025, comparing them to presidential rhetoric on China—both in sentiment and in theme—as well as U.S. economic growth and the trade deficit with China, in order to determine which factors most strongly shape American attitudes toward this major Asian power over time. Understanding this relationship sheds light on how presidential rhetoric can influence American public opinion on China—the grassroots foundations of U.S.-China relations.