Conflict Without War: China's "Gray Zone" Strategy Around Taiwan as a Form of Managed Escalation in Contemporary International Conflict

The subject of the study is the strategy of the "gray zone" of the People's Republic of China around Taiwan as a form of controlled escalation of the modern international conflict. The article considers the actions of the People's Republic of China, which are developing below the threshold of open armed conflict, but creating stable forced pressure on Taiwan. Particular attention is paid to the air and sea activity of the PLA, the actions of coast guard ships, large-scale military exercises, demonstration of blockade potential, information and psychological impact and Beijing's legal and diplomatic line. The author analyzes how these tools do not form scattered episodes of pressure, but a reproducible conflict mode. The object of the study is a modern international conflict in the context of strategic competition between China, Taiwan and external actors, primarily the United States. The article distinguishes between the interpretation of the Taiwanese situation as a preparation for a possible force scenario and its understanding as an independent regime of long-term coercion. The methodological basis of the study is the conflict and institutional approaches. The paper uses the method of studying a single case on the material of the Taiwanese crisis, the analysis of official documents and elements of procedural analysis, allowing to trace the transition from individual episodes of pressure from the PRC to a stable model of controlled escalation around Taiwan. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the interpretation of the Taiwanese case not only as a potential pre-door to armed conflict, but also as an independent regime of long-term coercion below the threshold of war. The paper shows that the signs of the "gray zone" already described in the studies of RAND, M. Mazarra and A. A. Bartosz, receive a special form in the Taiwanese case: they are connected with the problem of sovereignty, Sino-American rivalry, asymmetry of resources and the high symbolic importance of Taiwan for Beijing. The main conclusion is that the PRC uses the "gray zone" strategy not only as a preparatory tool in case of a future armed conflict, but also as an independent mechanism for changing the strategic environment. This mechanism allows to increase the pressure on Taiwan without creating an unambiguous basis for a tough military response for the enemy. As a result, there is a conflict without war: a state in which there is no open war, but the conflict is constantly reproduced through dosed pressure, demonstration of force and control of escalation thresholds.