Sustainable Institutional Shuttle Fleet Electrification: Techno-Economic and Carbon-Payback Assessment of Distributed PV–BESS Charging Sized via Closed-Form KKT Active-Constraint Analysis

Institutional shuttle fleets with fixed routes and predictable terminal parking are well-suited to charging photovoltaic–battery energy storage system (PV–BESS) charging for sustainable campus mobility. However, siting and sizing are often solved numerically without identifying the physical constraints that determine the optimum. This study develops a sustainability-oriented framework for converting a 10-van diesel shuttle fleet at Rajamangala University of Technology Lanna into an electric fleet supported by distributed PV–BESS charging stations. A centralized one-station layout is compared with a distributed two-station layout, and a closed-form active-constraint sizing rule is derived using Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) analysis. Results show that the distributed configuration eliminates dead-run travel and provides higher lifecycle value than the centralized case. KKT analysis identifies two binding constraints: the PV rooftop-area limit and the BESS one-day autonomy requirement. Under base-case assumptions, the transition achieves positive lifecycle value and substantial CO2 reduction relative to the diesel baseline. Monte Carlo analysis confirms financial robustness within the uncertainty ranges, while deterministic stress tests show sensitivity to diesel prices, PV electricity credit values, discount rate, and fleet utilization. The framework provides an interpretable decision-support method for institutional fleet electrification in solar-rich campus settings, contributing to SDGs 7, 11, and 13 through clean-energy adoption, sustainable transportation, and CO2-emission reduction.