Flood-prone and prepared? Assessing household adaptive capacity to perennial flooding in greater Kumasi metropolitan area (GKMA), Ghana

Growing research shows that the world is in the Anthropocene, characterized by escalating environmental crises, with flooding emerging as a major threat to urban populations. Ghana ranks among developing countries that are highly exposed to urban flooding, with the Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area (GKMA) experiencing frequent flood events that result in significant loss of life and property. Existing government responses, largely focused on structural measures, are often costly, short-term and less beneficial to vulnerable populations. Drawing on the adaptive capacity framework, this study uses data from 278 households to assess household adaptive capacity to floods and analyse its determinants in selected flood-prone communities in GKMA. A composite adaptive capacity index was constructed and analysed using an ordered logistic regression model. The results show that the majority of participants (61.5%) were classified as having low adaptive capacity, while 28.4% of households were classified as having moderate adaptive capacity, and only 10.1% were classified as having high adaptive capacity to respond to floods. Econometric results show that income, infrastructure, training and institutional support significantly increase the likelihood of higher adaptive capacity, while technology shows a positive but marginal effect, and awareness and information are not statistically significant. The findings suggest that climate adaptation policies should prioritize structural and institutional investments, particularly infrastructure, training and governance systems, over stand-alone awareness campaigns to effectively reduce flood vulnerability in rapidly urbanizing contexts.