Andean Glaciers and Páramos as Water-Capital: A System Dynamics Framework for Hydraulic Debt in the Tropical Andes

Tropical Andean glaciers and páramo ecosystems function as interconnected water-capital assets, regulating hydrological cycles across Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador. PÆramos act as high-altitude water regulators that capture, store, and gradually release precipitation, while glaciers provide dry-season meltwater buffers that sustain agriculture, potable water systems, and hydroelectric generation. This paper proposes a system dynamics framework the Hydraulic Debt Model that conceptualises the accelerating degradation of these ecosystems as a process of capital depletion generating long-term economic liabilities. Drawing on empirical studies of tropical Andean hydrology, the model formalises three reinforcing feedback loops glacial retreat, demographic pressure, and páramo encroachment alongside balancing mechanisms shaped by governance capacity and infrastructure investment. Evidence suggests that urban expansion, land-use change, and institutional weaknesses increasingly intensify water stress beyond the direct effects of climate change alone. Simultaneously, glacier retreat erodes the natural dry-season reserves upon which downstream urban and productive systems depend. The framework identifies three qualitative system phases: water surplus with hidden depletion, stress transition, and hydraulic bankruptcy. PÆramo conservation, demand-side governance, and institutional strengthening emerge as the highest-leverage policy interventions before irreversible hydrological regime shifts occur. Colombia’s projected glacier disappearance within two decades illustrates the trajectorytoward which tropical Andean water systems are converging.