Potential winter distribution and stopovers of a long-distance migratory falcon: projected climate-induced changes

Abstract The non-breeding ecology of the Sooty Falcon (Falco concolor) remains poorly understood despite its relevance for the conservation of this long-distance migratory species, which is undergoing population declines across its range. In this study, a georeferenced database of 535 non-breeding records from Africa and Madagascar was compiled to model climatic suitability across three phases of the annual cycle: post-breeding, wintering, and post-wintering. Current models indicate that post-breeding movements occur mainly through montane and sub-humid tropical regions of East Africa, whereas wintering areas are concentrated in Madagascar and, to a lesser extent, in the Mozambican and Malawian highlands. During the post-wintering (pre-breeding) phase, suitable habitats are largely confined to semi-humid zones in central Tanzania and eastern Zambia. Projections for 2050 and 2070 under warming scenarios suggest a progressive reduction and fragmentation of suitable areas, with climatic refugia persisting primarily in high-altitude and coastal environments. These findings highlight increasing climatic constraints on the species’ migratory network. Conservation measures should prioritise the protection of humid montane and coastal ecosystems in Madagascar and East Africa, as well as key stopover areas that support migration. A coordinated flyway-level approach integrating climate adaptation and habitat management is recommended to ensure the long-term persistence of non-breeding populations.