Climate-Driven Distribution Modeling of Endemic Iranian Ground Jay (Podoces pleskei): Ecological Niche and Conservation

The Iranian Ground Jay (Podoces pleskei) is the endemic bird species inhabiting the deserts and steppes of Iran, a region experiencing severe ecological disturbances like habitat loss and fragmentation of preferred habitat. Despite its remarkable adaptation to arid environments, Iranian Ground Jay exhibits strong habitat specialization, making it both ecologically resilient and vulnerable—an intriguing case for evaluating how the species responds to climate-driven habitat shifts. The present study aims to assess the current and future distribution of Iranian Ground Jay under climatic change using MaxEnt incorporating presence records and bioclimatic variables. We modeled the species’ potential distribution under two climate models (HadGEM3-GC31-LL and MIROC6) for 2070. Then, using the predicted habitats, we estimated the coverage of protected areas in Iran. Among climatic variables, we predicted that the annual precipitation (bio12), precipitation of driest quarter (bio17), and temperature seasonality (bio4) significantly influenced the distribution of Iranian Ground Jays. The highly suitable distributions of the species are concentrated in Eastern, Southeastern, and Central Iran. Our results indicated that a vast range of potential distribution is located outside protected areas, emphasizing the importance of conservation efforts. Our investigation shed lighted the consequences of global warming, where the highly suitable habitat is expected to shift under predicted climatic changes, resulting in a reduction in suitable habitat extent projected for the future. Based on these insights, it becomes imperative to reassess current conservation policy and devise an action plan specifically tailored for the Iranian Ground Jay, particularly emphasizing the protection of its core habitats within anthropogenically altered landscapes and non-protected regions.