Is There a Market for Organic Milk in Serbia? Insights From Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model

Past growth in the global organic market has been concentrated in high‐income countries, while in middle‐income countries such as Serbia the organic market remains nascent and characterized by a sparse assortment of organic products, high retail premia and limited evidence on consumer preferences and their drivers. This study uses a discrete choice experiment with Serbian milk consumers ( N = 441), analyzed through an integrated choice and latent variable model, to link stated milk choices to organic milk attitudes, health consciousness, and consumer responsibility for sustainable consumption. Results show that the organic premium is origin‐contingent: it is significant and positive for imported milk, while it is not statistically different from zero for domestic milk. Demand simulations indicate that narrowing the organic–conventional price gap can raise uptake of domestic organic milk. However, if a cheaper imported organic substitute is present, price reductions mainly shift demand within the organic segment rather than expand it. The latent‐variable component shows that organic milk attitudes are the primary behavioral driver of organic preference, while health consciousness and consumer responsibility influence organic preference indirectly through these product‐specific attitudes, with health consciousness showing the stronger association with organic milk attitudes. The findings imply that scaling the market for domestic organic milk is contingent on stronger credibility‐oriented value communication and coordinated supply‐side strategies.