Land-Use Stability in the Context of Spatial Planning in Poland

This article seeks to examine the extent to which the spatial planning of Poland (expressed by coverage of municipalities by Local Spatial Management Plans) reduces uncontrolled land-use changes. In the context of increasing urbanization pressure, spatial planning is theoretically expected to optimize land development and enhance land-use stability. The research tests the hypothesis that a higher share of municipal area covered by Local Spatial Management Plans should be associated with fewer uncontrolled transformations. Land-use changes were identified using CORINE Land Cover (CLC) data, while information on Local Spatial Management Plans coverage was obtained from Statistics Poland. Land-use stability was quantified using the hemeroby index. GIS tools and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression were used to assess the relationship between Local Spatial Management Plans coverage and changes in the hemeroby index, as well as to examine the spatial variability of this relationship across municipalities. The results indicate that the influence of Local Spatial Management Plans coverage on land-use stability is spatially differentiated. In some regions, higher planning coverage corresponds with greater landscape stabilization, while in others, planning instruments appear insufficient to counteract urbanization pressures. The findings provide an empirical verification of land management effectiveness in Poland and highlight regional disparities in the capacity of spatial planning to mitigate uncontrolled land-use change.