Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on vegetation coverage changes in the Taihang Mountains, China

The Taihang Mountains, situated in the transitional zone between the Loess Plateau and the North China Plain, serve as a crucial ecological barrier in northern China. Analysing the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation cover and identifying the underlying drivers are fundamental for effective regional resource management and ecological conservation. In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation change in the Taihang Mountains from 2000 to 2024 were analysed on the basis of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, climate records, and vegetation maps. Trend analysis, Mann‒Kendall significance tests, and the Hurst index were applied to characterize changes, while residual analysis was used to decompose and quantify the impacts of climate change versus human activities. Our findings reveal a significant greening trend, with the NDVI increasing by 0.0036 per year. High NDVI values were primarily found in southern regions, whereas low values were concentrated in the northwest. Increasing NDVI trends dominated 92.90% of the total area, while decreasing trends were limited (7.10%) and concentrated mainly in the eastern low-elevation foothills and populated urban areas, such as Jincheng. Hurst index analysis indicated that future vegetation changes are predominantly anti-persistent, with 56.97% of the area projected to experience degradation. Human activities dominated the variation in the NDVI (86.16%), compared to 13.84% from climatic factors, and contributed over 70.09% of the changes across all vegetation types. Among vegetation types, coniferous forests showed the most robust improvement under human interventions, whereas the “others” category and cultivated vegetation exhibited higher degradation levels. These findings offer a scientific basis for guiding ecological management strategies in the Taihang Mountains.