Modeling Current and Future Habitat Suitability of the Sunda Pangolin (Manis javanica) Across Southeast Asia Using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM)

This study employs Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to predict the current and future habitat suitability of the critically endangered Sunda Pangolin (Manis javanica) across Southeast Asia. By incorporating occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org) with bioclimatic variables from WorldClim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) is developed and validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance (AUC = 0.904). Future forecasts under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario (2061–2080) suggest potential shifts and slight expansions of suitable habitats along tropical and coastal regions, particularly in Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. These results indicate that while key habitats remain stable, climate change may alter and expand them. The findings highlight the need for international conservation planning, stronger habitat protection, and continued monitoring of sensitive species. By integrating spatial data, climate modeling, and environmental awareness, this research provides a foundation for sustainable conservation of the Sunda Pangolin and provides broader biodiversity maintenance efforts in a changing climate. These insights emphasize the importance of integrating ecological modeling with long-term climate planning to anticipate future habitat shifts.