Automation, digitalisation and decarbonisation in the European automotive industry: a roadmap towards a just transition

This paper explores the trends and factors at stake in shaping the twin transition in the European automotive industry. Drawing on an evolutionary political economy approach, that integrates structures of dependence across different actors, including firms, trade unions and EU institutions, we discuss how the existing core–periphery relations characterising the geography of production hamper the possibility of steering the transition towards just and equitable outcomes. The future pathways towards a just transition are constrained by the limited space of intervention granted to trade unions and by the absence of a common EU industrial policy—two instruments that could counteract the current asymmetric distribution of power between capital and labour, and across countries. Moving beyond scenarios that focus solely on employment creation or destruction, we argue that these structural asymmetries shape the conditions under which the twin transition unfolds.