Potential Distribution and Key Factors of Dasyhippus barbipes (Orthoptera: Acrididae: Gomphocerinae) in China Under Climate Change Scenarios

Dasyhippus barbipes (Fischer von Waldheim, 1846) is an early dominant grasshopper in Chinese grasslands, and understanding its climatic niche is important for monitoring and early warning. Based on nationwide field surveys conducted from 2019 to 2024, 732 filtered occurrence records were used with an optimized MaxEnt model parameters (rm = 1.5, fc = LQ) to predict the current and future suitable habitat of D. barbipes in China. The model performed well (mean AUC = 0.962, mean TSS = 0.924). The mean temperature of the coldest quarter and precipitation seasonality were the most important limiting variables, while elevation and human footprint also contributed to habitat suitability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitat is concentrated mainly in central and eastern Inner Mongolia, with additional suitable areas in the eastern Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang and the central Qilian Mountains of Gansu; the highly suitable habitat covers 6.57 × 104 km2. Under all future climate scenarios, suitable habitat is projected to shift northward, and stable areas are mainly located in eastern Inner Mongolia. Habitat changes become more pronounced by the 2090s. These results improve understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of D. barbipes under climate change and provide a basis for future monitoring and management.