Farmers’ preferences for policy packages promoting low-carbon fertilization technologies: evidence from a choice experiment in Shandong, China

Agricultural production is a significant source of carbon emissions. Promoting the adoption of low-carbon agricultural technologies is essential for reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, achieving climate goals, and advancing sustainable development. Therefore, this study investigates how multi-policy incentives and digital literacy jointly influence farmers’ preferences for policy incentives promoting low-carbon fertilization technologies (LCFTs). Based on a choice experiment involving 732 farmers in Shandong Province, we examine farmers’ policy preferences and the role of digital literacy in shaping preferences for policy incentives promoting LCFTs. The results indicate that government subsidy, insurance coverage, technical support, and multi-channel publicity were significantly preferred by farmers, although their preferences exhibited noticeable heterogeneity. In addition, subsidy combined with insurance coverage or technical support exhibited strong complementary relationships in farmers’ policy preferences, whereas insurance coverage and publicity campaign showed substitution tendencies. Moreover, digital literacy further enhanced farmers’ preferences for policy incentives supporting LCFTs. Lastly, farmers were willing to forgo relatively higher subsidy amounts for insurance coverage, followed by technical support, while publicity campaign showed the lowest subsidy trade-off preference. These findings offer practical insights for designing integrated policy frameworks that align external incentives with farmers’ internal capabilities, thereby supporting the promotion of low-carbon agricultural transitions and climate-smart agriculture under similar smallholder farming contexts.