Psychosocial maturity and institutional confinement from ages 15–22: a longitudinal reciprocal model

Objectives Psychosocial maturity develops rapidly during adolescence and early adulthood and is closely linked to delinquency and justice system involvement. Although incarceration and psychosocial immaturity have each been studied, they are rarely examined together within a single developmental framework, and modeling only one direction may inflate estimated effects. Moreover, psychosocial maturity is typically treated as a global construct, despite meaningful variation across its core components. Methods We analyzed data from the longitudinal Pathways to Desistance study ( N = 1,336), which follows serious adolescent offenders over time. Using Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Models, we assessed bidirectional associations between psychosocial maturity and correctional time. Psychosocial maturity was assessed via three core components: temperance, responsibility, and perspective. Results Lower psychosocial maturity predicted greater subsequent correctional time, and greater correctional time predicted slower-than-expected gains in psychosocial maturity. Standardized within-person effects were small but consistent across ages. Component-level analyses indicated that reciprocal associations were driven primarily by temperance. Conclusions Initial incarceration driven by lower psychosocial maturity levels may foster heightened institutional contact that further disrupts normative developmental processes, particularly self-regulation. These findings support both importation and deprivation perspectives and provide empirical support for Moffitt's ensnarement hypothesis. Findings highlight the importance of jointly modeling developmental vulnerability and institutional exposure and underscore the role of self-regulatory capacities in justice system involvement. Developmental implications and juvenile justice policy are discussed.