How important are small fragments for restoration in the central portion of the Atlantic Forest?

Tropical forests have experienced increasing fragmentation, transforming the landscape into small landscape elements (SLEs). Our study aimed to assess the rates of change in small fragments (<10 ha) and their drivers in the Atlantic Forest. We carried out a land use classification based on 26 RapidEye satellite images acquired between 2011 and 2015, resulting in six classes: urban areas, water bodies, permanent agriculture, temporary agriculture, vegetation, and others. We fitted a random forest model at the scene level for each fragment change rate as a function of landscape, climate, terrain, and soil variables. Our findings pointed out a net increase in the area of small fragments, with the greatest gains observed in the Vale do Rio Doce region. The rates of increment into the vegetation class showed high and positive values for the entire Atlantic Forest in Minas Gerais. Overall, vegetation cover increased by an amount corresponding to 28% of the domain's native area. These dynamics resulted in negative values of net area change, since most of the small fragments expanded and were incorporated into larger fragments. Land use classes in the surrounding matrix were identified as the main drivers for small fragments, showing that local characteristics have a greater influence on small fragment dynamics. Finaly, our results provide insights into the importance of protecting small fragments, and the elaboration of public policies that encourage the expansion of these fragments in terms of area. These strategies could lead to benefits for the forest cover of the Atlantic Forest.