Contributing factors to the underestimation of fire following earthquake damage among residents in Tokyo, Japan

Understanding residents' risk perception is essential for improving disaster preparedness in dense urban areas. Tokyo faces high risks of earthquakes and post-earthquake fires. This study aimed to identify residents in Tokyo wards who underestimate fire damage following earthquakes and to clarify associated factors. A cross-sectional online survey of Tokyo residents was conducted using stratified sampling. A total of 1139 valid responses were analyzed. Respondents who underestimated fire damage after earthquakes were identified, and multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associated factors. Overall, 130 respondents (11.4%) underestimated earthquake-related fire damage. This underestimation was significantly associated with being male (adjusted odds ratio: 1.85), having no prior disaster experience (1.63), living alone (7.84), and not belonging to a disaster management organization (2.53). These findings reveal a mismatch between objectively estimated district-level fire-following-earthquake (FFE) risk and residents' risk perceptions. Limited disaster experience, low community involvement, and reduced access to disaster-related information may contribute to this underestimation. Given that post-earthquake fires can substantially amplify overall disaster losses in densely populated urban areas, improving residents' awareness of local FFE risk through risk communication, disaster education, and community-based preparedness activities may contribute to integrated earthquake and fire disaster-prevention strategies.