‘I don’t want to become a Ukrainian mother fleeing war’: the impact of geopolitical uncertainty and the threat of conflict on fertility decisions among childless people in Taiwan

This study examines the intrinsic connection between two national security threats in Taiwan: ultra-low fertility crisis and the persistent possibility of armed conflict with China. Drawing on qualitative interview data from 204 voluntarily childless Taiwanese individuals, this article examines how geopolitical tensions and the threat of war across the Taiwan Strait shape reproductive decision-making. Three key findings emerged from the analysis: First, the perceived threat of war was cited as a factor in rejecting parenthood, though its salience varied among respondents. Second, war and other uncertainties – such as labour market insecurity, gender inequality, and educational pressures – interact to construct a broader pessimistic narrative that discourages family formation. Third, in the context of looming military conflict, participants’ accounts suggest that pro-natalist policies are either deprioritized in favour of national defence or rendered unfeasible due to persistent political polarization between pro-China and anti-China camps. I contend that geopolitical tension can operate as an independent distal factor influencing fertility behaviour. Atypical stressors – such as the threat of war – are increasingly woven into the globalizing process, adding further complexity to the more traditional concerns surrounding material and economic insecurity.