Unequal relational gains in a sport intervention for asylum seekers: How sociodemographics and athletic skills shape network outcomes

Sport-for-development (SFD) programs are seen as inclusive intervention tools for promoting social integration and well-being among vulnerable groups. This article examines a basketball SFD initiative for asylum seekers in a mid-sized Italian city, designed to improve participants’ social capital by providing new leisure and socialization opportunities. Drawing on a panel survey that included a detailed social network module, we use descriptive network statistics, Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) and Temporal ERGMs to address the following research questions: Was the basketball program effective in expanding participants’ peer networks within the intervention? Did all participants benefit equally from the program regardless of their individual characteristics? Did relational gains within the basketball program spill over onto participants' broader personal networks? We find that the program significantly fostered weak social ties (i.e. acquaintanceship and phone contacts) among participants, though its capacity to establish new friendships was limited. Moreover, relational gains were unevenly distributed among participants: tie formation was positively related to sociodemographic similarity and athletic ability, with more skilled participants being comparatively more proactive in forming new ties. Exploratory analyses suggest graded partial spillover effects on participants' broader weak ties with host society members, stronger for high relational gainers. These findings highlight the potential of sport interventions in fostering social capital among disadvantaged groups but also underscore the need to recognize and design for internal sociodemographic heterogeneity as well as the competitive and unequal dynamics embedded in such interventions.