Dynamics and Structural Changes in Economic Indicators of Passenger Rail Transport in Italy in 2010–2024

This paper presents a comparative analysis of selected economic indicators within the Italian railway passenger transport sector during the 2010–2024 period. Characterized by high-speed rail (HSR) saturation and advanced market liberalization, the Italian railway system serves as a reference model for investigating structural shifts within mature transport networks. The study aims to quantify the dynamics of transport performance through a synthesis of multiple analytical dimensions: passenger volume, transport performance (passenger-kilometers), modal split, average transport distances, and indicators of general and dynamic population mobility. The methodological framework is based on the application of chain and base indices, enabling the precise identification of cyclical fluctuations, exogenous disruptions (primarily the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic), and the subsequent degree of systemic resilience. The analysis suggests a significant shift in demand composition after 2014, characterized by an expansion of short- and medium-distance segments alongside a transformation in travel behavior. The research findings determine the correlation between infrastructure investment and the actual positioning of rail transport within a multimodal system. This work provides an analytical foundation for strategic planning in transport policy and sustainable mobility within the context of European transport integration. Moreover, these insights are practically applicable for transport operators and planners in forecasting demand, optimizing network capacity, and enhancing infrastructure resilience against future exogenous shocks.