Techno-economic and probabilistic assessment of grid-connected nuclear–renewable hybrid energy systems for island power systems: A case study of Bangka Belitung

Indonesia has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, increasing pressure on the power sector to reduce carbon intensity while maintaining affordability and reliability. In high-cost island systems such as the Bangka Belitung Islands, heavy reliance on fossil-fuel generation creates significant economic challenges. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), integrated with renewable energy sources, offer a potential pathway for decarbonizing such systems while providing reliable electricity supply. This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of a grid-connected nuclear–renewable hybrid energy system (N–RHES) for Bangka Belitung through system-level optimization, probabilistic economic assessment, and regional cost benchmarking. Hybrid configurations combining SMRs, solar photovoltaics, and wind power were optimized to minimize net present cost (NPC), levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and carbon emissions under realistic grid-connected operating conditions. A multi-vendor probabilistic LCOE framework based on Monte Carlo simulation was applied to candidate SMR designs, and the resulting cost distributions were benchmarked against regional electricity generation costs across Indonesia. Hybrid system configurations achieved LCOE reductions of 68.6–86.3% relative to the grid-only reference case. The results indicate that several SMR designs remain economically competitive under uncertainty in high-cost regions, highlighting the potential role of SMR-based hybrid systems in supporting Indonesia’s long-term net-zero transition.