Statistical Information on COVID-19 Vaccines in Italy: Methodological Errors and Misleading Communication

<ns3:p>Background The statistical information on COVID-19 vaccines was disseminated in Italy by the institutional bodies responsible for producing and communicating health data. Policy and Implications The communication of statistical health data was affected by a series of errors of varying magnitude and severity, as well as by ambiguity and a lack of clarity. In some cases, data of fundamental importance for specific assessments were not disclosed, while in others the data themselves were used in a manifestly misleading manner. This led to a significant overestimation of vaccine effectiveness and a parallel underestimation of adverse reactions occurring after vaccination. We cannot rule out that errors of the opposite kind may also have occurred, but none emerged from our analysis, suggesting the existence of structural biases in the production and communication of the data. Recommendations and Conclusions This policy brief does not question vaccination campaigns per se, but rather emphasizes the need for methodological rigor, informational clarity, and communicative integrity in support of public health decision-making.</ns3:p>