South Atlantic Bight Reef Fish Distributions: Lack of Poleward Shifts Amid Climate Change

Climate change is generally expected to drive species poleward in response to warming temperatures; however, habitat and oceanographic complexities may alter these responses. This study analyzed the trends over two decades of bottom temperature, species distributions, and population size for sixteen species of reef fishes in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) to assess whether these reef fishes are exhibiting climate-driven shifts in distribution and abundance. Results indicated negligible changes in bottom water temperatures. Most species maintained stable distributions, though, unexpectedly, three species shifted southward while only one shifted poleward. However, over half of the species experienced declines in abundance and biomass over time, despite no significant increase in their temperature of occurrence. These findings suggest that bottom water temperatures are not currently the dominant driver of SAB reef fish distribution and population dynamics. This study provides a critical baseline for understanding SAB reef fish distributions and highlights the importance of regional variability in a warming world.