A multi-criteria geospatial assessment of water stress, demand competition, and conflict risk in a Tropical River Basin of Ghana

Efficient water resource management is essential for reducing water stress and user competition in support of the Sustainable Development Goals. This study applied a multi-criteria geospatial framework to evaluate surface water availability, consumption dynamics, and emerging conflict risks within the Ankobra River Basin of Ghana. Terrestrial water storage (TWS), water abstraction, landuse/landcover, soil characteristics, population, and topographic factors were integrated using the GIS-based Analytical Hierarchy Process to identify spatial patterns of water stress and potential conflict hotspots. Results show strong seasonal variability in water availability, with a net deficit of approximately 2.79 billion cubic metres between wet and dry conditions. Industrial activities dominated surface water demand (74.5%), followed by domestic (16.4%) and agriculture (9.1%), with total annual consumption and demand of 68.17 Mm³ and 81.89 Mm³ , respectively. Future projections indicate substantial increases in domestic demand, leading to basin-wide deficits of 15–114 million cubic metres per year by 2063. The study identified upstream sub-basins 8 and 9 as critical vulnerability hotspots where rapid industrial expansion and population growth are intensifying water demand and user competition, with future conflict risks driven predominantly by land-use change, topographic limitations, and declining water availability rather than direct abstraction pressures.