Bi-level Planning of Generation and Storage for Power Systems Based on Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis

Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis (CEPA) is an extension of traditional thermal and mass pinch analysis widely used for strategic decarbonization planning. However, traditional CEPA lacks temporal resolution and operational validation, which are critical for the power industry. This study proposes a bi-level low-carbon planning framework. In the upper layer, CEPA rapidly determines the minimum clean energy requirement under carbon emission constraints, effectively simplifying the optimization process. The lower layer utilizes a time-sequenced operational optimization model to ensure power balance and stability while determining optimal generation and storage capacities, including both short and long-duration storage. Through iterative coordination, the framework achieves convergence between carbon-oriented planning and operation-feasible dispatch. A case study of a provincial power grid in Northwest China demonstrates that to meet 2030 governmental decarbonization targets. Furthermore, CCS integration significantly reduces the required new energy installed capacity by 4,170 MW compared to non-CCS scenarios. This highlights that CCS technology expands carbon reduction potential and alleviates reliance on large-scale renewable expansion and long-duration energy storage.